The Iowa caucus: My Second Thoughts
A short take about the Iowa caucus: It’s a numbers game.
The predominant national commentary seems to be that Donald Trump won an overwhelming victory over his two chief rivals, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.
Well, yes, given that Trump got 51 percent of the vote with DeSantis and Haley each getting close to 20 percent. That’s a 30-point victory margin, one of the larger margins in Iowa caucus history. But at the same time, the numbers also suggest that 49 percent of the party is looking around for a nominee not named Trump.
Translating these numbers from percentages back to their total vote numbers, Trump got 56,000 votes in a state where there are 760,000 registered Republicans. Not exactly an overwhelming endorsement.
Also, a closer look at the total attendance and how that compares with previous years indicates a substantial decline this year – from 187,000 in 2016, the last contested Republican caucus year, to 109,000 this year, a 41 percent decline.
Yes, it was a bazillion below zero on caucus night, a good reason to stay home. But we’ll never know for sure whether the decline in attendance was 100 percent because of the weather, or whether there also is a declining enthusiasm for Trump and what came down to his two primary competitors, DeSantis and Haley, who both have declined to criticize him, his policies, or even his outrageous lack of human decency.
A final note on the Iowa caucuses, which have been the first presidential testing ground in the country since 1972: They always have been better at winnowing the field than at predicting winners.
There have been 13 caucus years during this time, which translates to 26 presidential nominees for the two major parties. Excluding the nine times incumbents were running for re-election, which almost always means the lack of a meaningful party contest, 17 of the caucuses have been wide open. In other words, Iowa has had 17 chances to pick a front-runner and send that candidate on through the primaries and to their party’s nomination.
Iowa did that, however, only seven of the 17 times. Seven times, the Iowa winner ended up being their party’s nominee. Ten times, it did not work that way. The Iowa winner went on to lose their party nomination. The success rate in identifying the ultimate nominee has been an unimpressive 41 percent.
At the same time, however, Iowa does pretty well in determining which candidates will fall by the wayside. This year, the list of losers in Iowa on the Republican side – all now gone from the campaign after attempting to gain support in the nation’s first presidential test of public support – is long: Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christy, Asa Hutchison, Doug Burgum, Mike Pence, and Tim Scott.
Aside from Trump, only two other Republicans earned a ticket out of Iowa with their presidential aspirations intact. DeSantis and Haley are trying to use their second- and third-place finishes in Iowa to propel their presidential campaigns onward and upward.
Something to think about: 59 percent of the time, that has worked, with someone other than the Iowa winner becoming the party nominee.
Thank you! Our best to Leslie, as well.
As always, excellent assessment on the GOP caucus results and what it portends for a future nominee besides the Trumpster. Oh, Leslie Novak sends her best to you and your wife.